It’s Time to come Out Of The Cave

(formerly Guerrilla Capitalism. Pardon us while we cutover to the new name)

Out of the Cave is about…

Broken Markets

Going on a over a decade faux recovery, we are now in a scenario where central banks are essentially trapped at or near the zero bound. Market signalling is dead, fundamentals don’t matter. Markets are remaining irrational longer than anybody who seeks to eschew the “New Economy” Kool-Aid can stay solvent.

What does the contrarian minded, historically aware, rational value/Austrian minded investor do? Find out here.

800lb Gorillas.

The other side of interest rate suppression and financial repression is 10+ years of Cantillon Effects, where new money benefits those who receive it first, leading to an Everything Bubble where financialization and consolidation squeezes out real businesses and the middle class.

It can’t last forever and after it ends it’ll be the real businesses with real models who survive the fallout. Here we talk about being one of them.

Surviving Socialism

It’s hard to imagine that socialism, “The Failed Idea That Never Dies”, is back with a vengeance and enjoying a newfound vogue among the mainstream press and even the political elite.

Make no mistake, this movement has traction and it’s gaining momentum. As always, flame out and crash in a heap ignominious failure. Until it does, things will get worse before they get better, so we’ll look at ways to preserve wealth and property through this approaching dark era.

Read on...

Enough conspiracy, let’s stick to data and science to end the lockdowns, Part 2

In part 1 I talked about two COVID-19 / Great Reset themed conspiracy theories that were spreading in Canada and why embracing or amplifying them made lockdown skeptics look like lunatics who could more easily be dismissed. There is no shortage of science and data to challenge the flawed policies of the nation states whose basic playbook has been: lockdown, close economy [...]

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Enough conspiracy, let’s stick to data and science to end the lockdowns, Part 1

(Part 2 is available here) A couple of recurring conspiracy theory themes keep being circulated to me, they are specific to Canada but I'm sure these are typical across all locations.  I find these maddening because there is plenty of factual, well sourced and scientifically verified counterfactuals to draw from when being critical of the near universal mishandling of pande [...]

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Merriam Webster redefines word after manufactured woke outrage

After the shrieking hysterical shitshow that was the Brett Kavanaugh confirmation hearings, everybody knew that the Amy Coney Barret hearings would be contentious, given the perceived stakes. [...]

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The Reversion Will be Mean

We hear a lot of talk in financial and economic circles about “reversion to the mean” or some variation: reversion through the mean or that reversion typically overshoots the mean. If you believe in cycles or oscillations, when you see something get wayyyyy out of whack, you may not know how much further out of whack it’ll go (“the market can remain irrational longe [...]

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"Pictures of the Socialistic Future", by Eugen Richter. Written in 1891. Foreword by Mark E. Jeftovic.